Posted by: mutantpoodle | October 16, 2008

And then there were none

I’m not at all sorry the debates are over. I can’t imagine how 20 town halls would have shed any more light on this campaign than we have already. And while I could never support John McCain, I completely get, based on their beliefs, why some people would. (We’re leaving out the whole Palin thing for now.)

I don’t get how, at this point, you’re undecided.

The two men are on opposite sides of most issues and polar opposites in temperament. No matter which way you lean, it’s just not a close call.

Anyway, so much for my “undecideds are strange” rant.

I don’t have a lot of deep debate thoughts. However:

  • John McCain really needs to learn anger management (and the difference between downs syndrome and autism)
  • Nothing flusters Barack Obama, and
  • I am sick of Joe the Plumber.

While some people want to highlight John McCain’s “I am not George Bush” rant, far more telling (and, I believe, fatal to McCain’s chances with many women) was his snide tone when saying “health of the mother” with “health” in air quotes. Watch the gender gap pop by a few more points after that on, which I have shared (courtesy of TPM) above. To paraphrase Mark Twain, better to keep your mouth closed and have people think you’re a thin-skinned, insensitive jerk, rather than open it and remove all doubt. Jeebus.

Now, people say 19 days in politics is a long time (although Kevin Drum disagrees), and in one sense it is, because there are 19 days when something can happen to alter the race.

It’s not a long time if you’re John McCain and looking to alter it yourself.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say Barack Obama wins this election. If you think that’s frontrunning, may I point out that I was right over a year ago when I said Hillary wouldn’t be the Dem’s nominee, and I was right in February when I said that Obama would get the nomination and, thereby, be our next President. I’m not doing this to pat myself on the back (OK, maybe a little bit) but to say that my predictive powers on this election have been better, say, than Dick Cheney’s with respect to the war in Iraq. (I’m not as prescient as Kos, who said in 2006 that if Obama ran in ’08, he’d get the Democratic nomination and very probably win.)

In the meantime, go here if you want to see election day simulations based on probabilities derived from state-by-state polls.

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