Posted by: mutantpoodle | November 12, 2008

Fearless Predictions Update

picture-1Just before last Tuesday’s election, I went on record with three election predictions. They were, essentially, that:

  1. Barack Obama wins the Presidency with 349 Electoral Votes, getting Indiana but not Missouri.
  2. Dems get 59 Senate seats total, including turncoat Lieberman, not calling Georgia, which I predicted would go to a runoff.
  3. Dems add 26 seats, or 259 total.

Let’s start at the top.

President: I underestimated the President-elect’s ground game, and wimped out on giving him North Carolina. I had the tough swing states (Indiana and Missouri) spot on. (There’s a tiny chance Missouri could go blue, but I’ll go out on a limb and say it won’t.) My North Carolina failure – and the flipping of one electoral vote in Nebraska blue – are what separate me from perfection. (Well, there are other things, but in this limited universe, that’s it.)

Senate: I am still in the running. Begich, in Alaska, trailed, but as of this moment has taken the lead as they count early and absentee ballots (there are a boatload of them), and I think he’ll pull it out. Franken, in Minnesota, trails by 206 votes, and that’s headed for a manual recount. I’m going to stick with my call of Franken winning, although the math, according to the brilliant Nate Silver, is tough. Georgia did go to a runoff, and I’ll pick it now – the GOP, and the malodorous Saxby Chambliss, hold on.

House: We’re not done here, and I’m still in the running. So far, the Democrats are at 255, with six seats not yet decided. So we’ll see.

That puts me somewhere between boastful and insufferable. Those who know me may be hard pressed to notice a change.


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