Posted by: mutantpoodle | March 12, 2012

The non-colossus

If you’re wondering why Republicans are gloomy about this fall, perhaps these charts will help you.  (Red, if you’re wondering, is UNfavorable.)

The one above shows Mitt Romney’s favorability ratings over the last 14 months. By way of comparison, here are Barack Obama’s from the same period in 2008:

And here is Obama over the same period as Romney (i.e., January 2011 – present):

Not overwhelming, but solid – and headed in the right direction.

For reference, this is John McCain in 2008:

Now, 2012 is not 2008.  In 2008, people thought well of John McCain, but not so much of Sarah Palin, and clearly they didn’t think McCain had any answers on the economy.

And they were, at the very end, extremely frightened.

I don’t think people are frightened this year. I think they’re frustrated.  This campaign will hinge on Romney’s ability to make people frustrated with Obama, and convince them that he (Romney) has a way out of this mess vs. Obama’s ability to give them another target for their frustration and convince them that Mitt Romney doesn’t have a clue.

I’m still putting my money on the incumbent – even with higher gas prices and SuperPacs and the craven dishonesty of Mitt Romney.

Or maybe because of Romney’s dishonesty.

Obama’s got a pretty good case to make – you can go with the Washington Monthly’s 50, 25, or 13 top accomplishments – and, come this fall, he’ll be ready to make it.

I don’t think Romney will wear well on the big stage. He doesn’t wear well in the Republican primaries, and is only surviving because a) he is running against lilliputian opponents and b) neither of those opponents is willing drop out to coalesce the anti-Romney vote.

It’s certainly not impossible for Mitt Romney to win this fall – we’re a Greek implosion and a war with Iran away from that – but I think he’s got – spitballing – a 1 in 3 chance.  And while it’s not impossible to climb out of a 15% favorability gap, it doesn’t help that the gap has been growing.

And no, Mitt – just because Newt Gingrich is unbelievably weak doesn’t mean you’re strong, just as Rush Limbaugh bullying Sandra Fluke doesn’t make him manly.

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