Posted by: mutantpoodle | October 31, 2012

Circling the drain

I am not an expert, but if you really thought you were winning in Ohio, would you feel the need to repeat a lie so dishonest that 67% of the major American car companies felt compelled to refute it, in once case in a company-wide e-mail from the Chrysler CEO?

(Psst – Mitt: people probably are tuning out 95% of political ads these days anyway, but you just got a corporate CEO – one of your people! – to call you a liar in an e-mail that everyone at Jeep/Chrysler/Dodge/Fiat will read. Nicely done!)

There seems to be a harmonic convergence zeroing in on the Romney campaign.

There is the horrible tragedy of FrankenSandy, devastating the New York City area and areas of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut, which knocked Romney off the campaign trail (and into “disaster relief” events which collected canned goods and energy bars that the Red Cross didn’t particularly want), while allowing Barack Obama to do his job, which lead to Chris Christie telling Fox News he doesn’t give a damn about election day or a photo op with Mitt Romney and praising Obama to the heavens for his crisis leadership.

There is the Romney campaign forced to say that, notwithstanding their candidate’s prior incarnations, he thinks disaster relief is fine and dandy. And the less said about Paul Ryan’s budget, the better.

There is anecdotal evidence that the Obama ground operation may well pull off a win in Florida, a state that all the cool kids had dropped safely  in Romney’s column. How big a deal is that? Without Florida, Romney can carry Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, and North Carolina – and still be 9 electoral votes short of a win. Also: at the moment, of those seven states, Romney only leads in North Carolina and Virginia, according to the latest polling averages.

More generally, this is about the time, if one is winning ,where you run the 1-2 minute positive commercials. talking about your plans for taking this great country into the future.

It’s not the time you pull out a long-ago discredited (by the Big Dog himself!) ad that claims Obama is gutting welfare reform. Quietly, of course.

Now, it’s true that Romney could win. I don’t think it’s likely, but it could happen.

My point is that the Romney campaign isn’t acting like it’s winning. I haven’t heard any boasts about Romney landslides lately; and their media strategy, particularly in Ohio, reeks of desperation.

And if you need any further proof that Romney is in trouble, look no further than Dick Morris, who has gone into his sweat lodge and found a Romney tide so strong that not only will Barack Obama lose every single swing state (except for Nevada, because dirty unions, that’s why), but states like Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are on the table, too. And – dare he dream? He does! – Oregon and New Jersey join the party, and Mitt Romney winds up with 362 Electoral votes. And while Dick Morris is virtually self-refuting, I’ve discussed Mittmentum! before. Twice, actually.

But I digress. I think Romney has just kissed Ohio goodbye, because the blowback on his Jeep production to China lie is so strong, and it’s coming not from the librul media but from the car companies themselves. Also, at this point, my guess is that most voters in Ohio could recite both sides’ campaign commercials to you verbatim. I don’t think one more is going to flip the state.

And for Romney, winning without Ohio  is almost as hard as winning without Florida. He can spot Obama New Hampshire and Nevada in the list above, but has to run the table on all the rest plus Florida.

It’s a deep hole, and the clock is ticking.

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