Posted by: mutantpoodle | November 5, 2012

Fearless Predictions, 2012

In for a penny, in for a pound, I guess.

I actually tinkered with throwing Florida to Obama, and while I think he (and his ground game) may pull it off, the counterweight of GOP actions to limit voting are an effective counterweight.

I’m giving Obama 50.5% of the popular vote.

As for the Senate, I think (in the possibly swing-y races) Republicans hold Arizona and Nevada (barely), lose a seat in Indiana, Massachusetts, and Maine, pick up seats in Nebraska and North Dakota, with the Democrats holding on in Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Which puts Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (Sanders in Vermont and Angus King in Maine) at 54 – a net gain of one Senator.

The House adds 12 Democrats but stays with the GOP.

When you head to Vegas with these predictions, keep in mind how much I am paid for my expertise.


  1. Prognostications on Prop 30? I mean, in for a penny, in for a pound and all that.

  2. I’m going to say that Prop 30 barely passes. 38 Fails. 32 (deservedly) fails. That’s about as fearless as I get.

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