In for a penny, in for a pound, I guess.
I actually tinkered with throwing Florida to Obama, and while I think he (and his ground game) may pull it off, the counterweight of GOP actions to limit voting are an effective counterweight.
I’m giving Obama 50.5% of the popular vote.
As for the Senate, I think (in the possibly swing-y races) Republicans hold Arizona and Nevada (barely), lose a seat in Indiana, Massachusetts, and Maine, pick up seats in Nebraska and North Dakota, with the Democrats holding on in Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Which puts Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (Sanders in Vermont and Angus King in Maine) at 54 – a net gain of one Senator.
The House adds 12 Democrats but stays with the GOP.
When you head to Vegas with these predictions, keep in mind how much I am paid for my expertise.
I live in Southern California, grew up in New York and Minneapolis, and have family scattered in three countries. I am a liberal, and woe be to anyone who says that with any sort of moronic disclaimer (i.e. “I’m a liberal but I’m not crazy” or “I’m a liberal but I still believe terrorism is bad”). I’m a liberal, OK? No apologies. However, I do think, when I hear the word uttered by some people, of Inigo Montoya in The Princess Bride: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
Prognostications on Prop 30? I mean, in for a penny, in for a pound and all that.
By: ProfessorSusan on November 5, 2012
at 7:39 AM
I’m going to say that Prop 30 barely passes. 38 Fails. 32 (deservedly) fails. That’s about as fearless as I get.
By: mutantpoodle on November 5, 2012
at 2:12 PM