Posted by: mutantpoodle | November 5, 2012

Gallup comes cantering back

National Polling Trend – September 2012-Present, Obama vs. Romney

One of the interesting nerd stories over the past month has been the disconnect between Gallup’s national polling numbers and, well, almost everyone else’s.  Nate Silver talked about it here, and noted that Gallup’s history as an outlier is, shall we say, sub-optimal.

Today, their final poll shows Romney up 1% (49%-48%) nationally, among likely voters. That’s in the ballpark of the national polls, which had also been divergent from swing state polls, but are lining up with an average 1.3% lead for Obama.

But Gallup might be right and not know it: their registered voter margin – before they apply their likely voter screen – shows Obama up 49% – 46%. Based on the battleground polls and the other national surveys, I’d say a 3% national popular vote win for Obama is closer to reality than a 1% loss. FWIW, the Great Orange Satan picks Obama to win the national popular vote by just over 3%. He also is picking Obama to get 332 Electoral Votes, which differs from my fearless forecast by…Florida.

I head into tomorrow feeling fairly confident.  I think, when all is said and done, two things will have doomed Romney – one early, one late.

The early anvil was the 47% tape, which stamped Montgomery Burns to Mitt’s forehead and gave Obama a little more cushion before the Denver disaster.

The late killer wasn’t Hurricane Sandy – that didn’t help Romney, but he was backsliding before Sandy hit, anyway – but his Jeep jobs to China lie, which managed to inspire two major auto companies to call him a liar.

As Princess Leia said to Han Solo in Empire Strikes Back, after he punched Lando Calrissian in the jaw, “you certainly have a way with people.”

Anyway, I think that killed Ohio for Romney. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so, and since the Nate Silver tipping point given polling averages is whether Barack Obama gets 303 or 332 electoral votes, this race has a decidedly blue tilt.  (Nate Silver has 332 Electoral Votes as most likely, with 303 just behind. Those two totals crop up in 31% of his simulations. The next most likely Electoral counts are both higher than 332 – and those four outcomes comprise just shy of 40% of the outcomes in his model.)

So I have about an 85% chance of being happy tomorrow night. 96%+, if you listen to Sam Wang. And I think, when all is said and done, Gallup will need to take a hard look at their voter screen algorithm.

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Responses

  1. Just want you to know that your mother is counting on you. (And you’ve helped keep her sane). She may have a pit bull mix in her house, but the poodle is much appreciated!


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