Posted by: mutantpoodle | November 13, 2012

Pretty much…

In a National Journal article on the GOP’s polling failures, this gem:

The underlying causes of the errant numbers are the assumptions that the pollsters made about the nature of the electorate. Most pollsters believed the electorate would look something like the voters who turned out in 2008, just with slightly lower numbers of African-Americans, younger people, and Hispanics heading to the polls.

But exit polls actually showed a much more diverse electorate than the one forecast. Black turnout stayed consistent with 2008, Hispanic turnout was up, and younger voters made up a higher percentage of the electorate than they had four years ago. White voters made up 72 percent of the electorate, according to the exits, down 2 points from 2008 and a continuation of the two-decade long decline in their share of the electorate….

No matter what the answer is, the GOP knows it must come up with a more reliable method of measuring the electorate. It hurts to lose; it hurts more when a party doesn’t see it coming. And this year, Republicans were completely blindsided.

Democrats “must be looking at us like we’re the biggest f—– morons in the world,” one frustrated Republican said. “That’s what I’d be doing.” [Emphasis mine]

I’m not entirely proud of it, but yes, that’s what I’m doing.

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